For discussion
FCR(97-98)30
on 23 July 1997


ITEM FOR FINANCE COMMITTEE

HEAD 186 - TRANSPORT DEPARTMENT
Subhead 700 General other non-recurrent

Members are invited to approve a commitment of $16.5 million for engaging consultants to conduct the Third Comprehensive Transport Study.

PROBLEM

1.We can no longer rely on the outdated traffic forecasts and results of the last comprehensive transport study - the "Updating of Second Comprehensive Transport Study" (CTS-2 Update) - for reviewing and updating our transport plans and policies.

PROPOSAL

2.We propose to engage consultants to conduct the Third Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS-3) to formulate an integrated and up-to-date transport strategy.

JUSTIFICATION

3.We commissioned the CTS-2 Update in 1990 to review the recommendations of the Second Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS-2), taking into account the latest strategic planning developments and Government's decision to relocate the airport to Chek Lap Kok. Since the completion of the CTS-2 Update in 1993, many major planning assumptions used in the study have become outdated. The objective of the CTS-3 is to formulate an integrated and up-to-date transport strategy up to 2011 and a detailed plan for the development and provision of transport infrastructure and various transport facilities. It will determine what we should do to achieve and maintain an acceptable level of mobility for passengers and freight by road, rail and ferry, having due regard to resource constraints and environmental issues. The detailed scope of the Study is at Enclosure 1.

4.By proceeding with CTS-3, we would be able to assess the transport implications of the latest land use plans and other development changes. This would allow the adequate and timely provision of transport infrastructure to meet the increases in travel demands, resulting in a good transport system and avoiding ever worsening traffic congestion in the territory.

5.The comprehensive nature of CTS-3 demands dedicated and experienced staff resources in several specialised fields, including transport planning and modelling, highway engineering, economic evaluation and environmental assessment. It is not possible to re-deploy Transport Department's existing staff resources to carry out the study because of other heavy commitments and the lack of a full range of expertise in these fields. We therefore propose to appoint consultants to undertake the study.

6.Subject to Members' approval, we will commence the proposed study in August 1997 for completion within 18 months. We will consult the Legislative Council Panel on Transport and Panel on Environmental Affairs, the Transport Advisory Committee (TAC) and the Advisory Council on the Environment upon completion of the study. We will also consult members of the public in the form of a Green Paper on Transport Policy in the light of the recommendations of the study.

FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

7.We estimate the non-recurrent cost of the study to be $16.5 million which includes an amount of $4.7 million for environmental assessment. A breakdown of the estimate is at Enclosure 2. A detailed breakdown of the environmental assessment component of the study is at Enclosure 3. We will award the consultancy on a lump sum basis.

8.Subject to approval, we plan to phase expenditure as follows -

Year$ million
(April 1997)
Price
adjustment
factor1
$ million
(MOD)
1997-985.121.0005.1
1998-9910.381.09611.4
15.5016.5

9.The study has no recurrent financial implications. We will manage the study with existing staff resources in Transport Department and Environmental Protection Department.

10.Subject to Members' approval, we shall offset any supplementary provision required in 1997-98 by deleting an equivalent amount from Head 106 Miscellaneous Services Subhead 789 Additional commitments.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

11.We consulted the Legislative Council Panel on Transport on the proposal on 8 November 1996. While Members supported the commissioning of CTS-3, some Members suggested that we should extend the planning horizon to beyond 2011. We have examined this suggestion. In order to address Members' concern, we intend to estimate the traffic growth rates in sub-regions between 2011 and 2016 on the basis of the overall projected territorial population in 2016 and apply these rates to project traffic forecasts for 2016. This will provide a broad indication of longer term demands and potential traffic concerns in 2016, which we will take into account when developing the transport infrastructure programme up to 2011.

12.We consulted TAC on 26 November 1996. While TAC supported the commissioning of CTS-3, some members suggested that it should include a study of the use of advanced technology in transport management. We have now included this in the scope of the study as set out in paragraph 3 of Enclosure 1.


Transport Bureau
July 1997


Note 1 : we have adjusted the price level by 9.6% for 1997-98, based on the latest forecast.


Enclosure 1 to FCR(97-98)30

Proposed Scope of the Study

The scope of the proposed study comprises -

(1)Highway development strategy - We will develop a highway transport infrastructure programme by carrying out the following tasks -

  • Assessing the adequacy of the recommended highway projects put forward in CTS-2 Update and all recent strategic planning and transport studies in the light of forecast demands;

  • Developing new infrastructure proposals, including a preliminary design of their alignments and other alternatives such as tunnels; and

  • Prioritising the proposed projects, taking into account traffic forecasts, environmental impact, and financial and economic evaluations. We will produce a cost estimate for each project.

(2)Public transport development strategy - We will formulate a public transport development strategy, including -

  • Reviewing the adequacy of the public transport networks; and

  • Assessing the proposals in the Railway Development Strategy and the proposals for railway development in the TDSR.

(3)Management measures and tolling strategy - On the management of transport demand, our tasks will include -

  • Reviewing the strategy for the management of transport demand as set out in the 1990 White Paper on Transport Policy in Hong Kong;

  • Updating various management measures recommended in CTS-2 Update;

  • Reviewing measures recommended by the Working Party on Measures to Address Traffic Congestion;

  • Reviewing the latest developments in advanced transport technologies, including traffic control and surveillance system, traveller information system, parking information system and intelligent navigation system, and considering how to apply these to the design and management of road infrastructure in Hong Kong; and

  • Recommending a tolling strategy for road crossings/tunnels. In determining the tolling strategy, we will take account of public acceptance, the findings of relevant transport planning studies and the need to achieve better traffic distribution among competing corridors.

(4) Cross-border traffic assessment- We will assess how we could accommodate cross-border traffic demands and our tasks will comprise -

  • Examining the effect of proposed additional cross-border road links to Shenzhen and Zhuhai. We will consolidate the latest findings and recommendations on cross-border development. We will identify the preliminary layout of new road connections between the new border crossings and the urban areas, and assess their traffic impacts on the road network of the territory;

  • Assessing the cross-border railway proposals put forward in the Railway Development Strategy and the TDSR in the light of latest forecast demands of passenger and freight traffic;

  • Assessing the adequacy of cross-border ferry services, both passenger and freight traffic, and the role of the ferry mode in the transport system; and

  • Examining possible major road project(s) linking North East New Territories with the urban area to the south and Yantian in Shenzhen to the north.

(5)Environmental assessment - We will carry out the following tasks with a view to formulating our transport strategy in an environmentally acceptable manner -

  • Undertaking a review of the current and future environmental conditions of the territory with regard to the existing and committed transport systems, to provide a foundation for environmental impact assessment;

  • Identifying appropriate environmental performance indicators, criteria and evaluation methodologies for strategic environmental evaluation of CTS-3 proposals; and

  • Assessing the environmental impacts of each transport infrastructure scenario and identifying appropriate mitigating measures.


Enclosure 2 to FCR(97-98)30

Breakdown of Cost Estimate

Consultants'staff cost



Estimated man-months

Average MPS
salary point

Multiplier factor

Estimated fee at
1997 prices
($ ' 000)

(a)

Inception report

Professional

2

40

3

355



Technical

1

16

3

60

(b)

Transport planning and

Professional

22

40

3

3,908


modelling

Technical

11

16

3

655


--validate model

Professional Technical

5

3





--forecast and test

Professional Technical

8

4





--assess traffic impact

Professional Technical

4

2





--propose new projects

Professional Technical

3

2





--review transport policy

Professional

2




(c)

Preliminary highway

Professional

7

40

3

1,243


layout and costing

Technical

6

16

3

357


--prepare layout

Professional Technical

5

4





--estimate cost

Professional Technical

2

2




(d)

Environmental





3,922


assessment (see note 3)






(e)

Project evaluation

Professional

4

40

3

711


--evaluate performance

Professional

3





--recommend programme

Professional

1




(f)

Final report and

Professional

4

40

3

711


executive summary

Technical

4

16

3

238

(g)

Consultative meetings

Professional

3

40

3

533



Technical

1

16

3

60

(h)

Green paper

Professional

1

40

3

178



Technical

1

16

3

60

Total consultants' staff cost 12,991


Consultants' out-of-pocket expenses




(a)

Printing of reports and working papers

500


(b)

Materials for presentation and computing facilities

500


(c)

Hire of equipment for environmental survey or investigation
(see note 3)

100


Total consultants' out-of-pocket expenses 1,100





Sub-total

14,091

Add :

Contingency (10%)

1,409

Add :

Inflation-related allowance

997


Total

16,497


Say

16,500


Notes

1. A multiplier factor of 3.0 is applied to the average MPS point to arrive at the full staff costs including overheads and consultants' overheads and profits, as the staff will be employed in the consultants' offices. (At April 1997, the monthly salary for MPS point 40 is $59,210 and MPS point 16 is $19,860).

2. Out-of-pocket expenses are the estimated actual costs to be incurred. The consultants are not entitled to any additional payment for overheads in respect of these items.

3. The figures given above are based on estimates prepared by the Commissioner for Transport, except the items for environmental assessment which are estimated by the Director of Environmental Protection (see Enclosure 3 for detailed breakdown).


Enclosure 3 to FCR(97-98)30

Breakdown of Cost Estimate for
Environmental Assessment

Consultants' staff cost
Estimated man-months Average MPS salary point Multiplier factor Estimated fee at 1997 prices
($'000)
(a)Prepare inception report Professional 0.5 40 3 89

(b)Carry out background studies, survey, or site investigation Professional
Technical
1.7
3.5
40
16
3
3
302
209
Air
  • " Review existing information
Professional 1
  • " Conduct site investigation
Professional
Technical
0.5
2
Noise Professional
Technical
0.2
1.5

(c)Establish assessment methodology and evaluation criteria Professional
Technical
3
8.25
40
16
3
3
533
492
Air
  • " Develop emission data set to establish evaluation methodology
Professional
Technical
1
7
  • " Stratify and analyse road traffic emission data
Professional
Technical
1
1
Noise Professional
Technical
1
0.25

(d)Analyse CTS-3 development scenarios Professional
Technical
4.75
4
40
16
3
3
844
238
Air
  • " Test scenarios
Professional
Technical
2
1
  • " Aggregate information and assess regional problem
Professional
Technical
2
2
Noise Professional
Technical
0.75
1

(e)Conduct ecological impact assessment Professional
Technical
1
1
40
16
3
3
178
60

(f)Identify and propose mitigating measures Professional
Technical
4.25
0.5
40
16
3
3
755
30
Air Professional 3.0
Noise Professional
Technical
1.25
0.5

(g)Plan for monitoring and audit Professional 0.58 40 3 103
Air Professional 0.25
Noise Professional 0.33

(h)Prepare final report and executive summary Professional 0.5 40 3 89

Total consultants' staff costs 3,922

Consultants' out-of-pocket expenses

Hire of equipment for environmental survey or investigation 100
Total consultants' out-of-pocket expenses 100

Sub-total4,022
Add :Contingency (10%)402
Add :Inflation-related allowance285
Total4,709
Say4,700

Notes

1.A multiplier factor of 3.0 is applied to the average MPS point to arrive at the full staff costs including overheads and consultants' overheads and profits, as the staff will be employed in the consultants' offices. (At April 1997, the monthly salary for MPS point 40 is $59,210 and MPS point 16 is $19,860).

2.Figures given above are based on the estimates prepared by the Director of Environmental Protection and Director of Agriculture and Fisheries.