For discussion
FCR(97-98)91
on 16 January 1998

ITEM FOR FINANCE COMMITTEE

HEAD 153 - GOVERNMENT SECRETARIAT : TRANSPORT BUREAU
Subhead 700 General other non-recurrent
New item "Second Railway Development Study"

Members are invited to approve a commitment of $35 million for engaging consultants to conduct the Second Railway Development Study.

PROBLEM

We need to formulate a comprehensive strategy for the next phase of railway development in Hong Kong.

PROPOSAL

2. We propose to engage consultants to conduct the Second Railway Development Study (RDS-2) at an estimated cost of $35 million.

JUSTIFICATION

3. Since the completion of the First Railway Development Study (RDS-1) in 1993, there have been significant changes to the planning context within which that study was conducted, as follows -

  1. RDS-1 was based on a total territorial population of 6.4 million by the year 2011. As a result of the 1996 Population By-census, we have revised the population projection figures upwards to 7.8 million by the year 2011 and 8.2 million by 2016. There are also changes in the population distribution and in employment patterns;

  2. we have embarked on an enhanced housing programme. In order to help achieve the new policy targets, it is necessary to plan ahead for the provision of adequate infrastructure, and to accelerate the construction of certain rail projects to facilitate accessibility to new growth areas;

  3. we need to enhance the cross-boundary passenger and freight transport links with the Mainland of China. Since mid-1996, the cross-boundary passenger traffic has been increasing rapidly. The average daily traffic through Lo Wu now consistently exceeds 150 000 passengers. The cross-boundary vehicular traffic also exceeds 30 000 per day. With economic and social activities between the Mainland and Hong Kong becoming more closely linked, we need to consider and re-define the enhanced role of cross-boundary rail passenger and freight services; and

  4. the Government and the two railway corporations have initiated various strategic planning studies to address problems arising from the forecast increase in population and economic growth. We need to follow up on these studies which have shed light on the future development of Hong Kong's transport system (including railways).

4. While the 1994 Railway Development Strategy has recommended three high priority railway projects for early implementation, it has made no concrete proposals on the need and timing for a number of longer term schemes which it has identified. We need to select the rail projects which Hong Kong needs to develop after the three priority rail projects. In order to cater for the demand arising from the changes described in paragraph 3 above, we need to advance the planning of the next phase of railway development in Hong Kong. We have to conduct RDS-2 as soon as possible in order to set out new rail proposals to meet the increasing demand, and assess the priorities and implementation sequence for the various railway schemes. RDS-2 will also investigate the appropriate methods for project implementation and ways to fast-track the railway development process.

The Proposed RDS-2

5. RDS-2 aims to formulate a comprehensive railway development strategy comprising an updated network expansion plan and a recommended implementation framework for the development of a safe, reliable, efficient, environmentally acceptable and commercially viable rail system to help sustain the economic, social, land and housing development of Hong Kong up to 2016.

6. The scope of RDS-2 will comprise three main parts, namely a network development study, a series of topical studies and an institutional study.

  1. Network development study
    2.

    The network development study (NDS) will have reference to the suggested broad land use proposals in the Territorial Development Strategy Review and the initial findings of the Third Comprehensive Transport Study.

    NDS will revisit the list of the longer term railway proposals identified in the 1994 Railway Development Strategy and investigate other new potential schemes. In an iterative process and taking due account of Government's new strategic policy objectives and possible population growth and development scenarios (such as high and extra high growths in population figures at different design years), the NDS will come up with optimal railway network configurations to enable the formulation of a network development strategy that can cater for the changing demands of the future.

    The NDS will include necessary studies on transport planning and modelling, land use and development, railway system and engineering, economic and financial appraisals. The NDS will also include a strategic environmental assessment as part of the comprehensive evaluation of different network development options. This will ensure that environmental considerations are fully integrated into the network expansion strategy so that we may maximise the environmental benefits and avoid adverse environmental consequences.

  2. Topical studies

    3. The topical studies comprise studies on a number of specific issues which will have important bearings on the formulation of the railway network expansion strategy. The findings of these studies will enable more detailed railway planning to commence. These topical studies will include -

    • an investigation of a fourth rail harbour crossing;

    • an investigation into the need for and feasibility of establishing a major transportation centre capable of interchanging between the Kowloon-Canton Railway, the Mass Transit Railway and non-rail transport;

    • identification of bottlenecks in the existing railway network and recommendation of improvements where necessary; and

    • an investigation of how best to enhance the cross-boundary rail passenger and freight services.

  1. Institutional study
    2.

    The institutional study will review aspects of railway planning, implementation and operation, and particularly those elements that will affect railway network expansion. These will include investigation of the following -

    • the fare-demand relationship and the possibility of fare integration for different railway systems;

    • the feasibility of setting unified standards for railways in terms of design and quality of services;

    • the various funding methods and options for implementing railway projects; and

    • measures for fast-tracking the railway development planning process.


A detailed description of the scope of RDS-2 is at Enclosure 1.

7. Subject to Members' approval, we will commence the proposed study in early 1998 for completion within 18 months. The tentative study programme is at Enclosure 2. To assist the Administration to proceed immediately with the planning of the more urgent railway projects, we will require the consultants to submit interim reports in about eight to 12 months from the commencement of the study. These reports will include recommendations on the more urgent rail projects for early implementation and solutions to provide congestion relief to the existing railway system in the short to medium term.

FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

8. We estimate the cost of engaging consultants to carry out RDS-2 to be $35 million, made up as follows -




$ million







(a)

Consultants' staff costs


27.27








(i) Network Development Study

12.81









(ii) Topical Studies

9.78









(iii) Institutional Study

4.68













(b)

Consultants' out-of-pocket expenses


1.17







(c)

Contingency (10%)


2.79








Sub-total


31.23







(d)

Inflation-related allowance


3.77








Total


35.00







A detailed breakdown of the consultants' fees is at Enclosure 3. We will engage the consultants on a lump sum basis.

9. Subject to approval, we plan to phase the expenditure as follows -

Year


$ million

1998-1999


17.7



1999-2000


17.3


_________

Total

35.0


_________

10. We have included sufficient provision in the 1998-99 draft Estimates for the purpose. The proposed study has no recurrent financial implications.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

11. In August 1991, Members approved RDS-1 which was completed in 1993. Based on the findings of RDS-1 and taking into account views expressed by members of the public on the study, we formulated and announced the Railway Development Strategy in December 1994.

12. The Strategy provided the broad framework for the development of Hong Kong's railway network, and identified three priority projects for early implementation, namely the West Rail (formerly known as the Western Corridor Railway), the Mass Transit Railway Tseung Kwan O Extension, and the Ma On Shan to Tai Wai Rail Link (which is to couple with an extension of the Kowloon-Canton Railway from Hung Hom to Tsim Sha Tsui). In May 1995, Members approved phase II of RDS-1 for conducting detailed implementation studies for the three priority rail projects. We plan to complete these priority rail projects in the next six years or so.

13. The Strategy has also recommended a number of longer term rail proposals, the implementation of which is subject to further land use decisions and infrastructure developments. The RDS-2 will take into account the latest available information on land use and infrastructure development.


Transport Bureau

January 1998

Enclosure 1 to FCR(97-98)91

Proposed Scope of the Study

The Second Railway Development Study (RDS-2) will comprise three main parts -

  1. Network Development Study

    2. The Network Development Study (NDS) will have reference to the suggested broad land use proposals in the Territorial Development Strategy Review and the initial findings of the Third Comprehensive Transport Study.

    NDS will revisit the list of the longer term railway proposals identified in the 1994 Railway Development Strategy and investigate other new potential schemes. In an iterative process and taking due account of Government's new strategic policy objectives and possible population growth and development scenarios (such as high and extra high growths in population figures at different design years), the NDS will come up with optimal railway network configurations to enable the formulation of a network development strategy that can cater for the changing demands of the future.

    The list of proposals to be investigated in the NDS will include, but not limited to, the following longer term proposals identified in the 1994 Railway Development Strategy and the list of new potential schemes -

    Longer term proposals in the 1994 Railway Development Strategy

    • North Hong Kong Island Line

    • West Hong Kong Island Line

    • South Hong Kong Island Line

    • East Kowloon Line from Diamond Hill to Hung Hom

    • KCR extension from Tsim Sha Tsui to West Kowloon

    • Outer Western Corridor

    • Port Rail Line to Lantau Port

New potential schemes

    • fourth rail harbour crossing

    • rail link between Tai Wai and the urban areas

    • an east-west rail link through Central Kowloon

    • other railway proposals put forward by the two railway corporations or in other planning studies

    • additional rail links with the Mainland for the provision of cross boundary passenger and freight services

The NDS will include necessary studies on transport planning and modelling, land use and development, railway system and engineering, economic and financial appraisals. The NDS will also include a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) as part of the comprehensive evaluation of different network development options to ensure that environmental considerations are fully integrated into the network expansion strategy so that environmental benefits are maximized and adverse environmental consequences are avoided.

  • Topical Studies on specific issues

    • The Topical Studies comprise studies on a number of specific issues which will have important bearings on the formulation of the railway network expansion strategy. The findings of these studies will enable more detailed railway planning to commence. These Topical Studies will include -

    - an investigation of a fourth rail harbour crossing to include the preferred railway system, route alignment, landing points, timing, interchange arrangement and the broad approach for its implementation;

    - an investigation of the need for, and the feasibility of, establishing a Mass Transportation Centre on Hong Kong Island, possibly in Causeway Bay, to serve both as an inter-city rail terminal and a major railway interchange for the convenient interchange between the Kowloon-Canton Railway and Mass Transit Railway lines, and between the rail system and other modes of transport. The study will confirm the feasibility of such a proposal, identify the major problem areas, recommend engineering solutions to overcome the problems, and propose a preferred layout including the required interchange facilities, ground level approach and access to the Centre;

    - an examination of the existing railway network to identify existing and potential bottlenecks and propose necessary measures for relieving any anticipated overloading of the railway system in the short to medium term. The proposed measures will need to be compatible with the possible long term railway network expansion needs; and

    - an investigation of the cross-boundary rail passenger and freight traffic to identify the transport and institutional considerations for the further development of railway services to cater for existing and future demands. Specifically, the study shall recommend the implementation sequence and timing of West Rail Phase II.

  • Institutional Study

    • The Institutional Study will review aspects of railway planning, implementation and operation, and particularly those elements that will affect railway network expansion. This study will include -

    - investigation of how fare changes will impact on the demand and loadings on the railway network, and the desirability and possible forms of, and approach to, fare integration for different railway systems;

    - an investigation of the feasibility of setting unified technical and service standards for railway systems, and the practicability of planning for sharing of railway infrastructure by different operators and the effect this will have on the existing and future network;

    - an investigation of the various funding methods and options for implementing railway projects that would be appropriate to Hong Kong's situation; and

    - a review of the existing railway development planning process and procedures, and recommendations on measures for fast-tracking the implementation of priority railway projects.

    On the basis of the findings of the above studies, the consultants will summarise the key components of an overall Railway Development Strategy, redefine elements as necessary, and make recommendations for an overall railway development framework that will be able to cater for different future development possibilities.